Europe’s energy transition towards renewable energy sources will be accelerated because of its pivot away from Russian gas, according to new analysis from DNV’s Energy Transition Research.
It found 34% of the energy mix in Europe will come from non-fossil fuels in 2024, two percentage points more than the pre-war forecast.
The biggest percentage increase is in solar, which by 2026 is up 20%, the analysis forecast.
Overall gas use will drop 9% in 2024 compared with DNV’s pre-war model run.
The delayed retirement of some of the continent’s nuclear power plants is also an important component of filling the gap.
Although some coal is needed in the very short term to meet Europe’s energy demand, by 2024 postponed retirements and higher nuclear utilization will be important to cover the shortfall of natural gas.
Emissions from energy will be 2.3% lower in Europe in the period 2022-2030, compared to a pathway without the Ukraine war, according to the analysis.
This is due to the increased prominence of low carbon energy (renewables and nuclear), more energy efficiency and, in the short to medium term, lower economic growth, it added.
DNV group president and chief executive Remi Eriksen (pictured) said: “As they did during the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe’s leaders have applied clarity of thought during a crisis to accelerate the continent’s energy transition.
“This time Europe is increasing energy security whilst reducing emissions.”
Russia’s pivot East will not fully compensate for reduced gas exports to Europe because of limited infrastructure, according to the analysis.
In contrast, DNV estimates that Europe itself will produce 12% more gas in 2030, reflecting industry’s reaction to higher oil and gas prices in the short term and response to the pledge from EU to deliver more gas.