The UK’s energy transition will deliver a cleaner, more efficient, and less expensive energy system, according to DNV’s UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report.
The independent energy expert and assurance provider assessed the UK’s trajectory against key government targets: Clean Power 2030, 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the net zero by 2050 goal.
While the UK will fall short-missing net zero by 18%-DNV’s analysis shows substantial progress in decarbonisation.
By 2050, emissions are projected to drop 82% from 1990 levels, amounting to remaining annual emissions of 145 million tons of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e).
The short-term Clean Power 2030 target sets an ambition to decarbonise the electricity system by decade’s end, but DNV forecasts that unabated gas will still generate 12% of UK electricity in 2030.
Full decarbonisation is expected by 2035.
Renewables will see strong growth, with solar, onshore wind and offshore wind capacity nearly doubling to 90GW by 2030.
However, this remains 45GW short of government targets to double onshore wind, triple solar and quadruple offshore wind.
Under the new NDC, the UK has committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels.
DNV’s projections suggest it will reach only 68%, requiring steeper reductions to meet its pledge.
Hari Vamadevan, executive vice president and regional director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV, said: “Despite economic and geopolitical challenges, the UK’s trajectory remains positive.
“A substantial green prize for our economy – cleaner and more affordable energy-, is there for the taking if we can grasp it.
“We must act swiftly to ensure we make decisive moves along the correct path.”
Decarbonisation is cost-effective: by 2050, household energy costs for consumers will drop nearly 40% from 2021 levels.
Energy demand will shrink by 25%, even as electricity consumption more than doubles, requiring 180GW of new generation capacity.
This decoupling of energy demand and GDP highlights continual energy-efficiency improvements across the economy.
Low carbon sources are expected to surpass fossil fuels in the supply mix, with the latter falling from 75% of primary energy today to 34% by 2050.
However, oil and gas will remain dominant across the next decade, with significant amounts still required to balance energy demand and ensure security of supply.