A new Aurora Utilities survey of 800 UK decision-makers finds 68% view grid connection reform as an investment opportunity as NESO issues its first Gate 2 offers.
Aurora Utilities said 74% of respondents expect faster connections under the new process.
NESO was informed that optimism is tempered, with 46% warning reforms could favour larger players and 44% saying high costs could still derail projects.
One industry leader said: “Gate 2 disproportionately favours the big players – they’re the only ones with deep enough pockets to roll the dice.”
Confidence remains mixed as 17% are not convinced Gate 2 will reduce delays.
Aurora Utilities added that 23% see the reform as a risk and 18% highlight implementation challenges that may slow returns.
The survey shows 80% fear equipment shortages could push 2026 projects off schedule.
“Our data demonstrates that for many, Gate 2 is credible in theory – but its value will be proven in delivery, timetable discipline, and consistent decision-making across regions and technologies,” said Aurora Utilities chief executive Simon Reilly (pictured).
Six in ten respondents have between £50m and £250m committed for 2026 builds requiring a grid link.
However, Aurora Utilities stated that 33% expect to lose 11% to 15% of projects in Gate 2, with others anticipating even higher attrition.
Mr Reilly commented: “These figures suggest the ‘zombie projects’ with no intent to progress may finally be cleared from the queue. However they also raise a concern: viable schemes could be screened out by process friction rather than any lack of deliverability.”
Almost half of respondents report that delays over the next 18 months could cost £50m to £1bn.
The survey also shows 30% place expected losses between £100m and £750m as financing and construction windows tighten.
Respondents identify queue management as the most influential change for 2026, followed closely by capacity market rules and carbon pricing.
“Our analysis is a strong signal that developers and investors view grid reform as central – but not sufficient,” added Mr Reilly.
Despite backing for queue reform, 44% warn that high connection or upgrade charges would force them to cancel projects.
Mr Reilly commented, “That’s the ‘hidden trap’ of connection reform: speeding up the process is helpful, but if outcomes arrive with prohibitive reinforcement costs, projects still don’t proceed.”
One industry leader said: “If we don’t give a clear, credible post–Gate 2 roadmap, we’ll clean the queue and still lose the race for investment.”
Mr Reilly concluded: “Gate 2 is a necessary reset but it will only be a breakthrough if it converts queue clean-up into construction certainty.”