The global offshore wind industry is set to attract $2tn of investment in the next decade, according to new research by Danish consultancy Brinckmann.
Regional policies in the biggest markets have driven historical wind growth, states the analysis, but cost, technology and value will drive future demand, stated the study.
Despite the doubling of annual average installations, the market is to witness more than 500GW of shortfall to ambitious governmental targets.
The report also reveals annual offshore demand will grow sixfold by the end of this decade. The same period has seen the US onshore market gearing up for 15GW of average annual demand. China grid-connected a record 76GW in 2023 while preparing for 100GW in the near term.
The Asia-Pacific markets will dominate growth in both onshore and offshore sectors throughout the forecast period, the study found. Starting in 2025, the former is expected to gain momentum due to the US IRA investments and Germany’s record project approvals.
But Brinckmann states the offshore industry stands at the precipice of globalisation and is poised to emerge as a central pillar in expediting the worldwide energy transition. The global offshore wind industry faced severe challenges in 2023, it said, as many developers announced project cancellations in the US and elsewhere.
However, more than 29 countries will install offshore wind capacity in the next 10 years, compared to 19 countries by the end of 2022.
The analysis paints a brighter for Western OEMS which, after four years of falls in order intakes, reported an increase in 2023, paving a recovery path in the onshore markets.
After three consecutive years of decline, the US annual installations will increase starting in 2024. Most orders placed in late 2023 will likely materialise in 2025 and 2026, said Brinckmann.