Five “sensitive” policy interventions would put the UK back on track to deliver climate neutrality by 2050, according to researchers at the University of Oxford’s Climate Econometrics Programme.
A new strategy paper published in the journal Renewable Energy, published by the university’s senior climate econometricians Professor Jennifer Castle and Sir David Hendry, has identified “sensitive intervention points” that would trigger behaviour changes and put the country on a path to meeting its target.
Sensitive Intervention Points (SIPs) are a mechanism that allow for a small or moderate policy intervention to lead to positive transformational change via kicks (altering a variable in an existing system that triggers a positive feedback dynamic) and shifts (fundamentally altering the system, as with the Climate Change Act of 2008).
Prof Castle and Sir David Hendry have pointed policymakers towards five SIPs that would induce behaviour change to adopt new technology.
These are Zero Greenhouse Gas Electricity Generation, with greatly expanded renewable energy (RE) backed by increased storage and potential development of safe, small modular nuclear reactors.
Secondly, zero greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, then using electric vehicles as a network of short-term storage units plugged into an intelligent, resilient and expanded grid; plus a government-funded scrappage scheme.
In addition, low-cost hydrogen from cheap surplus renewable energy, liquefied for medium-term storage and industry – producing many products like glass far more cheaply.
Furthermore, changing domestic energy to heat pumps and solar photovoltaics – after retrofitting, promoting solar windows and smart glazing.
Finally, harnessing electricity in agriculture – expanding vertical and underground farms in inner cities and ground basalt as a cheap fertiliser.
Jennifer Castle, the director of the climate econometrics programme at the University of Oxford, said that economists’ mantra of ‘carbon taxes’ would not be effective rapidly enough without behaviour change.
Prof Castle added: “Humans are creatures of habit and inertial behaviour reflects high perceived costs of economic and psychological adjustments to change.
“We need to shift those perceptions because the good news is that many of the changes that we need to make to achieve net zero by 2050 are becoming cheaper and more possible.
“The focus of SIPs is because behaviour change measures need to be implemented quickly and must have wide reach to be effective and ensure climate neutrality by 2050 can be met.
“By targeting a small number of areas we can achieve outsized impacts and maximise the benefits of the energy transition for the UK.”
Sir David Hendry, of the Climate Econometrics Programme at Nuffield College, University of Oxford, said that the UK was at risk of falling behind on its pathway to net zero.
He explained: “Recent Parliamentary reports have raised the alarm that the UK has drifted off track on net zero. Our research shows that it is possible to get back on track with a few targeted and well-timed interventions.
“Coal use has fallen to near zero in the UK since the 2008 Climate Change Act – but eliminating coal from energy production was the easiest reduction: now both oil and natural gas usage must be removed sequentially.
“The rapidly falling costs of renewable energy sources like solar photovoltaics and wind turbines combined with improved storage methods could eliminate most oil and then gas usage by 2050 – but only with policies that target sensitive intervention points.
“An extended grid should be self-funding; vehicle obsolescence steadily replaced by EVs using cheap increased RE will have near zero net costs and ultimately be cheaper than our current fossil fuels; surplus RE could lower many production costs; heat pumps are cheap to run but need retro fitting of badly insulated houses; and basalt is cheap and inexpensive to grid, so a green transition need not be costly, while raising living standards and maintaining employment.”