Growth in global demand for natural gas is expected to slow in the mid-term due to rollout of renewables and improved energy efficiency, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global gas demand is on course to grow by an average on 1.6% a year between 2022 and 2026, down from an average of 2.5% a year between 2017 and 2021, says the Gas 2023 Medium-Term Market Report.
Thestudy notes the advent of the global energy crisis in 2022, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has “ushered in a different era” for global gas markets after a decade of strong growth between 2011 and 2021.
Overall gas demand from mature markets in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America peaked in 2021, and is forecast to decline by 1% annually through to 2026, according to the report.
An accelerated rollout of renewables and improved energy efficiency are among the key drivers behind the downward trend for natural gas in these markets.
For Europe, the loss of piped gas from Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, pressed governments to seek alternative solutions to maintain energy security.
Decreasing demand in mature markets across the world – a collection of countries that represents almost half of global gas consumption – means that growth will be highly concentrated in fast-growing Asian markets as well as some gas-rich economies in the Middle East and Africa.
China alone is expected to account for almost half of the total growth in global gas demand between 2022 and 2026.
“After their heyday between 2011 and 2021, the world’s gas markets have entered a new and more uncertain period that is likely to be characterised by slower growth and higher volatility – and could lead to a peak in global demand by the end of this decade,” said IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori.