Electrification of transportation, buildings and industrial sectors in Europe could cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% between 2020 and 2050, according to a new report published by BloombergNEF (BNEF).
Written in partnership with Stakraft and power electronics outfit Eaton the report, ‘Sector Coupling in Europe: Powering Decarbonisation’, outlines a “plausible pathway” of electrification, taking account of current levels of policy ambition in countries like the UK and Germany.
BNEF global policy analysis head Victoria Cuming said: “Electrification, or ‘sector coupling’ as it’s known in some countries, could make a huge contribution to the achievement of governments’ emission-reduction targets by exploiting the low-carbon transition already underway in the power generation sector.”
Electrification could take place via a mix of ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ changes, according to the report.
‘Direct’ would involve the proliferation of electric vehicles in as much of the transport sector as possible, and the spread of electric heating systems like heat pumps in buildings and some parts of industry; and ‘indirect’ would involve a switch to ‘green hydrogen’ – produced by electrolysis using renewable electricity – as a fuel to provide heat for buildings and as many industrial processes as possible, that otherwise would rely on fossil fuels.
“However, action from policy makers will be needed if these changes are to happen,” Cuming said.
“Governments should introduce incentives or requirements to cut emissions from building heat, support demonstration projects for electrification, and iron out barriers to the production of green hydrogen.
“They should also consider how to engage energy consumers and civil society as they have a crucial role to play in enabling electrification of these new sectors,” she added.
The report estimates that the power system could need 75% more generation capacity by 2050 compared with what would be needed without the additional sector coupling, with low-cost wind and solar plants comprising most of that.
The power system would also need to be more flexible due to the different energy consumption patterns of heating and transport. At the same time, the newly electrified sectors could create new sources of this ‘flexibility’ – by being able to alter their consumption patterns – provided the right policies and technologies are in place.
Such an electrification pathway would enable power (directly and indirectly) to account for up to 60% of final energy demand by these sectors, compared to just 10% now.
That would still be far short of full decarbonisation for those sectors, due to the various hard-to-abate activities within them – including aviation, shipping, long-haul road transport and high-temperature industrial processes such as cement and steel – as well as the long replacement cycles of some assets.