Rystad Energy modelling shows total installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in China will cross the 1000GW (1TW) mark by the end of 2026.
When installed capacity crosses the 500GW mark by the end of 2023, it will have taken 13 years to reach that milestone, which will be doubled to 1TW in three additional years.
New capacity in 2023 is expected to top 150GW, almost doubling the 87GW installed in 2022, according to Rystad Energy.
About 165GW is expected to be added in 2024 and 170GW in 2025.
This growth will see China’s cumulative solar PV capacity reach over 700GW by 2024 and increase to close to 900GW by the end of 2025, before topping 1TW in 2026.
Today, China’s 500GW represents approximately 40% of global capacity, with the US in second place, accounting for about 12% with 145GW.
Installations in the US are also expected to grow, helped by the incentives offered through the Inflation Reduction Act, but total capacity will be about 209GW in 2026, or around 11% of the global total.
According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), CNY134.9bn ($15.8bn) has been invested in solar PV construction during the first half of 2023.
This is 3.4 times the investment put into thermal power during the same period and the highest among all power generation sources.
As China continues to invest in renewable energy, proactive measures to address the challenges of solar intermittency have been taken by encouraging new utility-scale renewable projects to build associated storage.
Pumped hydro, for example, is developing fast in China to meet seasonal changes in energy demand.
By June 2023, China had 49GW of pumped hydro, which is expected to reach 64GW by 2025 and over 120GW by 2030.
“China’s national programme to build out solar capacity, launched in June 2021, has led to a significant boost in large-scale projects,” says Yicong Zhu, senior renewables and power analyst at Rystad Energy.