The US solar industry installed nearly 18GW of new capacity in the first half of 2025, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie.
Solar and storage accounted for 82% of all new power added to the grid in the first six months of the Trump administration.
However, the groups said the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and recent federal actions targeting solar have sharply reduced forecasts.
The low-case scenario in the US Solar Market Insight Q3 2025 report shows the country could lose 44GW of solar by 2030, an 18% decline, or 55GW compared with pre-HR1 forecasts.
“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” said SEIA president Abigail Ross Hopper.
She added: “Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardising the reliability of our electric grid.”
The report found that 77% of all solar capacity installed this year has been built in states won by President Trump, including eight of the top 10 for new projects: Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.
The US added 13GW of new module manufacturing capacity in the first half of 2025 with new or expanded factories in Texas, Indiana and Minnesota, bringing total capacity to 55GW.
Wood Mackenzie said no new upstream manufacturing investment was recorded in Q2 as federal policies threaten to stall progress.
Head of solar research Michelle Davis said: “The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1. Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry incredibly challenging.”
The report also warned that the Department of the Interior’s recent order could delay 44GW of planned projects, particularly in Arizona, California and Nevada.
Outlook to 2030 is now 4% lower than the pre-HR1 base case, though near-term activity is supported by projects already underway and deadlines for tax credits.