As much as 209GW of new photovoltaic (PV) capacity could be installed globally in 2021, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest forecast.
BNEF’s first quarter 2021 Global PV Market Outlook predicts a minimum of 160GW of new capacity will be added in 2021, up from 141GW installed in 2020.
Further out the analyst is predicting 221GW of new capacity installations in 2022 and 240GW in 2023
In other findings from its research the analyst said most country’s solar markets will grow in 2021, particularly India, which has a large number of projects delayed from 2020, and China, which is expected to maintain growth to keep course for its 2060 net zero target.
To supply demand, massive expansions of polysilicon and wafer capacity are planned, along with expected new glass capacity.
Due to “plenty of module capacity”, BNEF expects prices to drop to about $0.19 per watt for standard modules based on 166mm wafers, with larger-format modules commanding a premium in markets without trade tariffs.
There is enough silicon from outside Xinjiang to meet demand even if the US and Europe set effective sanctions on products from the province, BNEF found.
Sanctions on silicon from the Chinese province of Xinjiang may require ingot suppliers to keep some product unblended to supply the US and European markets, which may increase prices slightly and favour First Solar, the main non-silicon-based module supplier, BNEF said.