DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook for the UK finds the country’s energy transition is moving quickly but not fast enough to meet Clean Power 2030, the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution and the 2050 net zero goal.
Emissions are forecast to fall by 33% by 2035, roughly half of what is required to meet the NDC target, according to DNV.
Hari Vamadevan, senior vice president and regional director, UK & Ireland, energy systems, DNV, said: “The dilemma we face is to balance the energy system whilst in transition.”
Vamadevan said: “Polarized views can obscure the fundamental reality that the energy sector is deeply intertwined, meaning that it is a monumental challenge to prioritize one area over another unless we take into account all parts of the energy system and the adjacent areas like socio-economic developments, nature and bio-diversity.”
The report also forecasts the UK will still emit 130 MtCO₂e per year in 2050, representing an 84% reduction from 1990 levels.
The country will double its wind capacity and triple solar capacity within four years to reach 107GW of variable renewables by 2030 but will still require unabated gas for 15% of electricity generation.
Wind, solar, nuclear and other renewables will provide 85% of low-carbon energy by 2060, while imported fossil fuels will supply the remaining 15%.
Fossil fuels will account for 15% of primary energy supply by 2060 compared with 75% today, while total energy demand is expected to fall by a quarter by 2050.
Electricity demand from data centres is forecast to rise from 8TWh today to 70 TWh by 2060.
Sarah Kimpton, energy transition director at DNV and co-author of the report, said: “What this report outlines is that addressing the energy trilemma and balancing the energy system demands integrated solutions that span technology, infrastructure, policy and behaviour.”