The global shift towards cleaner energy remains resilient despite a slowdown in the United States, according to DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook.
The ninth edition of the annual report finds that policy reversals and renewed support for fossil fuels in the US will delay national emission reductions by around five years.
DNV estimates annual carbon dioxide emissions will be 500–1000 million tonnes higher than previously forecast.
However, the report concludes that the US slowdown will have only a marginal impact on the global transition, with momentum continuing elsewhere – particularly in China.
The country accounts for 56% of global solar PV installations and 60% of new wind power additions this year, setting records for renewable deployment and exports of clean technology.
DNV forecasts a slightly slower overall transition, with the global energy mix expected to be split 51%-49% between fossil and non-fossil fuels by 2050. Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 are now projected to be 4% higher than in last year’s outlook.
“It is more important than ever to evaluate the energy transition from a global perspective,” said DNV group president and chief executive Remi Eriksen (pictured).
“The global energy transition is not stalling – it is evolving, with momentum shifting to regions that are doubling down on clean technologies. Security has become the dominant driver of energy policy, and as our forecast shows, this is in sum accelerating the shift to renewables.”
The report finds that the net effect of energy security policies is reducing global emissions, which are forecast to be 1–2% lower per year as countries diversify supply.
Nuclear power is projected to account for 9% of global electricity supply by 2060 – one third higher than without energy security measures – while Europe’s emissions are forecast to be 9% lower by 2050 due to reduced fossil fuel imports.
Among other key findings, DNV notes that electricity generation will more than double by 2060, growing from 21% to 43% of total energy demand. Solar PV capacity is expected to exceed 3000GW this year, with China installing more than twice as much as Europe.
The report also highlights the impact of artificial intelligence and data centres, forecasting that AI will account for 3% of global electricity use by 2040 and that overall data centre consumption will quintuple to represent 5% of total demand.
Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall 43% by 2050, reaching net zero after 2090. DNV warns the carbon budget for 1.5°C of warming will be exhausted in 2029, with 2°C reached in 2052.
“In several sectors, technology progress and cost reduction are driving the energy transition forward, but in harder to decarbonise sectors, much more policy help is needed,” added Eriksen.
“While geopolitical tensions and national priorities add complexity, the global direction of the energy transition remains clear.”