New analysis from Cornwall Insight has revealed the level of procurement in Ireland’s fourth Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS 4) auction falls short of what is needed for the government to meet its 2030 electricity decarbonisation target.
The data shows that based on the already existing and contracted capacity, approximately 4GW of solar will be online by 2030, and just over 5GW of onshore wind.
Despite the progress in the latest auction, this would leave Dublin’s 4GW short of targets for both technologies.
A total of 17GW of installed onshore wind and solar capacity is needed by 2030 if Ireland is going to achieve its target of sourcing 80% of electricity from renewables by the end of the decade, said Cornwall Insights.
RESS 4 saw solar secure nearly double the capacity of the previous year – 960MW, up from 498MW in RESS 3.
Onshore wind also saw a boost, with 374MW secured, more than double the 148MW procured in 2023.
While this is positive, Cornwall Insights said “there are only two, at a push three, RESS auctions left to secure the necessary renewables, meaning if auctions continue at this rate, the government will fall short on its decarbonisation target”.
The analysts said the Department of Energy, Climate and Communications implemented some positive changes to this auction round, including allowing generators to delay their required operational date by up to two years if issues related to grid connections or judicial reviews of planning permission arise, helping to see competition rise and strike prices fall. However, it is clear there is more to be done to rebuild momentum in the onshore wind sector and incentivise further investment at the scale needed, it added.
There was disappointment elsewhere with no hybrid projects awarded a contract. Confusion over what is defined as a hybrid project and a lack of a national framework have been cited as key reasons, said Cornwall.
“An increase in renewables procured in this year’s auction, following last year’s disappointing outcome, shows that the government is listening and responding to industry concerns,” said senior consultant Ratnottama Sengupta.
She added: “While this auction will help bolster the number of renewables coming onto the grid and narrow the gap between current levels and our elusive 2030 targets, it is clear we are still playing catch-up.
“While it is important to recognise the achievements in the latest auction, if we are to reach the 2030 renewables goal, we need to ramp up the momentum in upcoming auctions.
“We cannot afford to become complacent. It is clear the auction structure needs to be made more attractive to investors if they want to reach their target.
“The uncertainty surrounding hybrid projects only adds to the challenge.
“These projects could be a game-changer for hitting renewable targets while ensuring our flexibility needs are met, but if the Department of Energy, Climate and Communications wants to encourage hybrid projects, they must examine current barriers and consider whether hybrid projects need to sit outside RESS or as a separate pot within the auction.
“Without a clear national framework and alignment on how hybrid assets are defined and how they operate it is clear Ireland will be missing out on this additional capacity.
“It is crucial to stay optimistic and acknowledge the growth in renewables as a positive start. However, at this current rate, the government will fall short of its bold targets.”