Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE are set to increase their combined global turbine market share from 43% in 2019 to 60% by 2029, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Vestas, sitting at top spot in the global rankings, will be faced with strong competition over the coming years due to Siemens Gamesa’s “aggressive expansion” in the offshore segment.
Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Shashi Barla said: “SGRE will secure the global number one ranking by 2025 and retain that position through the end of the decade.”
Following Enercon’s financial troubles, Nordex has emerged as a robust fourth contender in global markets excluding China, in Wood Mackenzie’s league table.
The top eight global wind turbine makers will more than double their cumulative instalments this decade.
Wood Mackenzie’s analysis found Vestas and Siemens Gamesa will surpass the 200GW mark by 2029, while GE will be 12GW shy of that number.
Additionally, Goldwind will emerge as the only Chinese manufacturer to breach the 100GW mark by 2029.
Siemens Gamesa reinforced its market leadership in 2020 with more than 15GW of operational projects and over 17GW of projects under backlog, Wood Mackenzie highlighted.
Levelised cost of energy targets have forced many turbine OEMs to chase 15MW-plus turbines.
Wood Mackenzie stated: “Vestas/MHI Vestas is expected to accelerate much-needed investments in next generation 15MW-plus turbines.
“These technologies will elevate Vestas’ offshore market share post-2025 and lower LCoE for offshore asset owners.”
GE continues to await the series production of Haliade X in 2021 for delivery to customers starting in 2022.
GE will switch to a larger rotor for deliveries, which will pit them against their peers and result in a larger market share for the company towards the end of this decade.
Western turbine manufacturers are expected to capture more than 10% of combined market share in China this year – the highest in the past decade – due to the feed-in tariff (FiT) termination, the analyst predicted.
Barla said: “FiT phase-out in China has triggered a near-term surge in the market, with tier II players climbing the 2020 rankings.
“China’s aim to meet the 2060 carbon-neutral goal may entice new entrants into the wind industry due to a significant increase in demand.
“Tier two Chinese domestics players are targeting the offshore market with 10MW-plus turbines, while the mainstream players look to 5-7MW technologies to strengthen their share.”
In China, SEwind and MingYang are expected to consolidate the Chinese offshore market with 60% of combined market share over the next decade, despite increasing competition from other turbine manufacturers, Wood Mackenzie stated.