Annual photovoltaic plant operations and maintenance (O&M) costs will grow to just over $9bn in 2024 according to new research from Wood Mackenzie, from over $4bn in 2019.
The increase is due to future demand growth and current installed capacity, the report said.
It estimates that unplanned repairs alone can cost owners up to $3,000 per MW a year, based on an average-sized solar power system of 50MW.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s research after a modest decline in 2018, the global solar market will reach 114.5GW in 2019, up 18% from the previous year. Annual installations will sit at 120-125GW in the early 2020s as emerging markets “begin to deliver results”.
Global cumulative solar PV installations are expected to grow from 500GW in 2018 to 1243GW by 2024.
China, India and the US concentrate more than 50% of global solar PV installations to 2024, making both “APAC and North America the most attractive regions within the solar O&M segment”.
Solar installations nearing inverter end of life will reach 21GW by the end of 2019, representing 3.4% of the global market, the report found, increasing to more than 14% of the total cumulative capacity over the following five years.
By 2024, Wood Mackenzie expects the solar industry to have 176GW of projects with inverters older than 10 years.
By 2024, inverter replacement costs alone will reach nearly $1.2 billion out of a total O&M opportunity of $9.4bn. Other areas that have a significant impact on costs are regular preventative maintenance and corrective repairs, representing 35% and 24% respectively.
Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Leila Garcia da Fonseca said: “Solar technology has greatly improved technician utilisation ratios over the last few years. Previously, one technician would be able to service 20MW of solar capacity.
“Global downward price pressures have driven the implementation of automated solutions and digital platforms, making it possible for technicians to service from 40MW-60MW of solar capacity – more than doubling their efficiency in some cases.
“As asset owners and operators continue to invest in advanced analytics and O&M specific software, and move from more time-consuming methods of spreadsheet-based analytics, operational costs will be reduced and higher data quality achieved.”
She added that though a “significant portion” of solar PV projects have a monitoring system implemented, few are synced in real-time with diagnostics tools in place, while “even fewer” conduct basic periodical performance assessments.
An end-to-end digital platform is not yet a “reality” and though asset operators deploy some of the digital solutions available they have yet to use this advanced of a digital ecosystem,” said Garcia da Fonseca.
She added: “In order for big data adoption to ramp up, two things need to happen. Asset owners must realise the benefits a digital platform can bring to their asset management tasks. Additionally, results from systems with established advanced analytics must be more widespread among the industry.”