Global offshore wind capacity additions will reach 16GW by the end of 2025, with around two-thirds of new projects located in China, according to Rystad Energy.
The research firm said that by 2030, China’s offshore wind sector will account for 45% of the world’s cumulative capacity, underlining its growing dominance as the United States scales back renewable investment.
Rystad noted that unfavourable economic and policy conditions in the US – including stop-work orders, reduced tax incentives and inflationary pressures – have slowed domestic project development and diverted capital flows to Europe and Asia.
US renewable energy investment has fallen 36% year-on-year so far in 2025, while European commitments are increasing as companies redirect spending away from the American market.
Stop-work orders were issued earlier this year for Ørsted’s Rhode Island offshore wind development and Equinor’s New York project. A federal judge has since reversed the order on Ørsted’s Revolution scheme, though the company has yet to determine its next steps.
Alexander Fløtre, senior vice president and head of offshore wind research at Rystad Energy, said the shift in US policy “not only halts or slows progress on offshore wind projects that were previously greenlit but pushes European wind developers away from US investment”.
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is meanwhile expanding its domestic offshore portfolio, with its 1.5GW Hainan CZ7 project approved and expected to be the company’s first utility-scale wind farm before 2030.
Rystad said attempts by Western governments to build an alternative supply chain to compete with China remain limited, as many original equipment manufacturers have returned to the country’s favourable business environment. Around 25% of the manufacturing sites producing key turbine components for Western OEMs are located in China.
Andrea Scassola, vice president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said Europe’s wind industry is taking notice, with policymakers working to reduce reliance on Chinese imports and strengthen domestic manufacturing.