Delays to onshore wind investment will increase long-term power prices in Ireland, according to analyst outfit Cornwall Insight.
In its fourth All-Island Power Market Outlook to 2030 for the Irish market, Cornwall forecasts that prices will not return to pre-pandemic levels before 2030.
Revised timelines on investment decisions for onshore wind have seen predictions for power prices in the late 2020s increase, which has “dashed the hopes” of them dipping below historic levels, which Cornwall Insight had previously predicted would happen in 2027.
Onshore wind is a key technology for meeting additional demand and carbon targets, as it is a cheap to install form of new generation capacity.
Increased capital costs have delayed wind buildout and the retirement of certain gas plants, which will increase the floor price in the late 2020s and cause winter power prices to stay above summer prices, Cornwall has predicted.
There was some good news, Cornwall added, with forecasts decreasing in the early 2020s as milder weather and higher storage capacity lowered gas prices.
Ratnottama Sengupta, Senior Consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “Despite the revising of forecasts, our report shows power prices are still scheduled to drop significantly in the mid-2020s as the closure of high-cost fossil fuel plants makes way for lower-cost offshore wind and solar.
“The introduction of the new North-South interconnector should also help to improve efficiencies and with it drop prices.
“Ireland is still on track to meet its 80% renewable electricity target in 2030 and maintaining focus on the move to low-carbon energy sources will be key to securing energy supply, lowering prices and finally emerging from the energy crisis.”