A new report has found despite an unprecedented acceleration in renewable energy deployment in 2023, progress still falls short to triple renewables by 2030, with current national plans and targets set to deliver only half of the required number, and an investment of more than US$1tn a year is needed to get back on track.
The first official progress report of the landmark energy goals established by the UAE Consensus at COP28 in Dubai added annual backing for renewables would have to triple, from a new record high of US$570bn in 2023 to US$1.5tn every year between 2024 and 2030.
Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 was released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in partnership with COP28, COP29, COP30 host Brazil and the Global Renewables Alliance today at Pre-COP.
It states to meet the global goals, installed renewables capacity would have to grow from 3.9 terawatts (TW) today to 11.2TW by 2030, requiring an additional 7.3TW in less than six years. Current national plans are projected to leave a global gap of 3.8TW by 2030, falling short of the target by 34%.
In addition, the study found the annual energy intensity improvement rate must increase from 2% in 2022 to 4% on yearly base up to 2030. This will require faster progress in efficiency measures and electrification across multiple sectors, including transport, building and industry.
The analysis said these shortfalls highlight the inadequacy of existing policies and plans to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, underscoring the need for urgent policy interventions and massive investment. The third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement in 2025 must close the gap towards 2030, it added.
IRENA director general Francesco La Camera said: “Today, we are raising the alarm. As the custodian for tracking progress of the UAE Consensus energy goals, we must flag significant gaps.
“The COP28 goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency are key enablers for our global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach but we risk missing them.
“The next NDCs must mark a turning point and bring the world back on track.”
COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber (pictured) added: “The global goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling annual energy efficiency improvement by 2030 set out in the UAE Consensus are not just benchmarks ─ they are essential enablers of all global efforts to achieving 1.5°C and advancing sustainable prosperity for all.
“The opportunity is there but we need more nations to step up to the plate by including specific renewable energy and infrastructure targets in their upcoming NDCs, incentivising private investment, and making it easier to develop and deploy projects.”
COP29 president designate Mukhtar Babayev said: “This important set of findings by IRENA and GRA includes vital insights on accelerating the global energy transition.
“Central to our plan to enhance ambition and enable action are a number of presidency-led initiatives that contribute to global climate action at COP29, and which reflect the outlook and opportunities captured in this report.
“These include driving the agenda forward through the creation of green energy zones and green energy corridors, strengthening electric grids, increasing energy storage capacity, and development of clean hydrogen.
“To take tangible steps and turn these recommendations into reality, we are working closely with international partners to ensure that commitments translate into tangible outcomes that benefit all nations, including those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.”
The progress report concludes that to deliver the UAE Consensus goals on the ground, significant advances will be required across the key enablers of the energy transition, namely: infrastructure and system operation, policy and regulation, supply chains, skills and capacities, finance, and international collaboration.
It also highlights how emerging and developing economies continue to face financing gaps that undermine access to capital-intensive energy transition technologies.
The report found renewables investments in Africa declined by 47% between 2022 and 2023. Sub-Saharan Africa received 40 times less than the world average per capita transition-related investment.
Reducing this gap involves securing financing at better terms by mitigating country risks and increasing the availability of concessional finance, mostly from multilateral and bilateral development funds and financing institutions and philanthropies, it added.
International collaboration will be crucial to better channel funds to achieve climate, development and industrialisation goals for a more equitable world.