Despite renewables becoming the fastest growing source of power, the tripling target pledged at COP28 will be missed unless growth reaches new unprecedented levels.
To stay the course, the world will now have to grow renewables capacity at a minimum 16.4% rate annually through 2030, according to Renewable Energy Statistics 2024 released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The unprecedented 14% increase of renewables capacity during 2023 established a 10% compound annual growth rate (2017-2023).
Combined with the constant decreasing additions of non-renewable capacity over the years, the trend sees renewable energy on its way to overtake fossil fuels in global installed power capacity.
However, if last year’s 14% increase rate continues, the tripling target of 11.2 terawatts (TW) in 2030 outlined by IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario will fall 1.5TW short, missing the target by 13.5%.
Furthermore, if the world keeps the historic annual growth rate of 10%, it will only accumulate 7.5TW of renewables capacity by 2030, missing the target by almost one-third.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera (pictured) said: “Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent.
“Renewables must grow at higher speed and scale.
“Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel; if we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”
“As custodian agency tasked with monitoring the progress, IRENA is committed to support countries in their pathways to meet the target, but we need concrete policy actions and massive mobilisation of finance at full speed to reach our destination together.
“Consolidated global figures conceal ongoing patterns of concentration in geography. These patterns threaten to exacerbate the decarbonisation divide and pose a significant barrier to achieving the tripling target.”
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber said: “Today’s report is a wake-up call for the entire world: while we are making progress, we are off track to meet the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity to 11.2TW by 2030.
“We need to increase the pace and scale of development.
“That means increasing collaboration between governments, the private sector, multilateral organisations, and civil society.
“Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivise the private sector to invest.
“Additionally, this moment provides a significant opportunity to add strong national energy targets in NDCs to support the global goal of keeping the 1.5°C target within reach.
“Above all, we must change the narrative that climate investment is a burden to it being an unprecedented opportunity for shared socio-economic development.”