The EU can achieve 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, according to a new study by Agora Energiewende in Germany.
How to Raise Europe’s Climate Ambitions for 2030 presents recommendations for the German Presidency of the EU Council and makes proposals for the further development of the EU’s climate policy.
The present target is a 40% reduction by 2030.
The study was prepared against the backdrop of current debate surrounding a higher climate protection target for 2030, Agora said.
A new target is to be adopted under the German EU Council Presidency by the end of the year, and subsequently presented to the international community at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021.
In the run-up to the conference, the European Commission also intends to submit proposals for modifying the EU’s policy architecture for climate protection.
For emissions from industry and the energy sector, which are regulated by the EU emissions trading scheme, the study proposes a greenhouse gas reduction of 59-63% compared to 2005.
Emissions in the other sectors, particularly transport, buildings and agriculture, could be reduced 45-49% compared to 2005, Agora’s analysis stated.
Agora Energiewende executive director Patrick Graichen said: “The success of the COP in Glasgow depends on the European Union presenting a significantly higher climate target.
“This target will have to be backed up by ambitious policies and measures that enable its fulfilment.
“Our study shows that, in principle, the climate policy architecture of the EU is fit for purpose.
“However, the EU’s climate policy instruments will have to be significantly strengthened to achieve these emissions reductions in practice.”
The study, undertaken by the Oko-Institut on behalf of Agora Energiewende, examines interactive effects between the two central European climate protection tools: the EU ETS and the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR).
For each tool, the study considered a variety of options and flexibility mechanisms that would enable EU member states to achieve the intended EU-wide emission reductions.
These include a tightening of emission standards for motor vehicles, a new market for national emission allowances (AEA market) in the transport, building and agriculture sectors, and the setting up of a separate Europe-wide emissions trading scheme for these sectors.
The study also examined the reductions required of individual EU member states to lower greenhouse gas emissions by 55% across Europe.
Some member states have already adopted targets and measures in line with a stricter EU climate target, in particular the Nordic member states.
“These member states are leading the way by showing that well-designed climate policy does not have to impair prosperity or quality of life – quite to the contrary,” said Graichen.
Less wealthy EU countries in eastern and south-east Europe will have to do “considerably more” in the future, the study found.
The study has proposed several compensatory mechanisms, including, for example, distributing part of the proceeds from the AEA market to less wealthy EU states.