Germany is on course to miss its 65% 2030 renewable energy target, according to analysis by the Institute of Energy Economics (EWI) at the University of Cologne.
EWI said gross electricity consumption could rise to 748 terawatt hours by the end of the decade, while generation from clean power would rise to 345TWh, representing only a 46% share.
The institute said demand from electric vehicles and heat pumps will help drive demand for electricity over the next 10 years.
German government analysis assumes demand of 595TWh, EWI said.
It added that the 345TWh generation figure is based on the tenders and special invitations to tender planned in the country’s Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and expected installed capacity in 2030.
EWI noted that the German government in its Climate Protection 2030 programme assumes 377TWh.
“The difference is due to the higher installed capacity in the photovoltaic sector. The German government assumes 98GW, while the EWI calculations result in 66GW,” said Tobias Sprenger, a research analyst at EWI.
Both EWI and the government assume onshore wind to be 68GW by 2030, an increase of 16GW from 2018.