Research and development (R&D) expenses among the world’s top 10 wind turbine manufacturers are expected to exceed €2bn by 2023, predicts Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
It its latest ‘Next-Generation Wind Turbine Models’ report, the analyst found that R&D expenses more than doubled in the last four years, reaching €1.6bn in 2018 and are expected to increase to €2.3bn by 2023.
Over 90 new onshore and offshore turbines are expected to be launched within the next five years by the top 10 leading manufacturers, according to the report.
According to Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Shashi Barla, turbine makers “have accelerated R&D investments in next-generation turbine platforms”, battling against new unit sales margin compression and the market’s need to further reduce wind energy’s levelised cost of energy (LCoE).
“Turbine technology investments are central to lowering LCoE below the €15-20/MWh mark and mitigating developer/off-taker increased exposure to merchant power prices,” Barla said.
Offshore wind turbine sizes are expected to sit at around 20MW by 2030, the report predicts.
The cost of technology, balance of plant equipment and installation vessels able to handle such large components will play a crucial role in delivering these huge capacity machines.
“Turbine manufacturers must work in tandem with the supply chain to ensure these technologies can be developed and deployed cost-effectively,” said Barla.
According to the study turbine makers are expected to continue their frantic pace of new product introductions, including 7-8MW onshore turbines with 200+ metre rotors expected to be available by 2025 and 20MW or larger offshore turbines with 280+ metre rotors possible before 2030.
“Turbine rotor diameter remains the central product differentiator for turbine OEMs. However, the knock-on impact of blade enlargement requires continued innovation on rotor, tower and drivetrain technologies in order to bend cost/performance curves,” said Barla.
Ultra-low wind class turbines are becoming mainstream platforms in China, while western manufacturers are turning to India as domestic players face challenges.
Most manufacturers are expected to migrate to the 3.0MW configuration with 145-155 metre rotors within the next 12 months, found the report.
In Europe Scandinavian markets have been early adopters of the latest generation wind turbine technologies.
“Within the region, Finland was the first country to test the latest generation technologies from Vestas, Nordex and Enercon. We expect corporate PPA market development to accelerate the adoption of such technology,” said Barla.