About half of global electricity should come from wind and solar power by 2050, up from 7% in 2018, to limit global warming to below two degrees Celsius, according to a new report from Equinor.
The ‘Energy Perspectives’ report sets out three possible future scenarios, with the ‘renewal’ scenario showing how targets set out by the Paris Climate Change Agreement can be met.
“This can be delivered through rapid and significant policy tightening, global cooperation, technology developments and substantial changes in business and consumer behaviour,” Equinor said.
Annual additions of wind and solar need to double by 2030, while the production of batteries for energy storage needs to increase 20-fold, the report said.
The scenario also envisages the end of almost all coal-fired generation, gas use needs to fall by over 10% and significant utilisation of carbon capture, utilisation and storage is required.
Equinor chief economist Eirik Waerness (pictured) said: “The challenges of meeting energy demand in a sustainable manner are large and multi-faceted.
“Transforming the energy systems is key, but we also need massive energy efficiency gains and much more carbon capture, utilisation and storage.”
In the Norwegian company’s ‘reform’ scenario policy is tightened to achieve the Nationally Determined Contributions pledged in Paris in 2015, as well as continued technology improvements.
In this scenario, energy-related CO2 emissions peak around 2030 and then decline moderately, but not enough to deliver on the climate targets, Equinor said.
The third scenario, ‘rivalry’, describes a future where the energy transition is slow – due to lack of trust, geopolitical volatility and ineffective solutions.
Waerness said: “Unfortunately, we see many examples of weakened cooperation in the world today.
“We also see more polarisation in the climate debate, with growing activism for change but also protests against the social impacts of change.
“And, as renewable energy grows, there is more focus on the consequences of new energy projects on nature.
“In combination, these trends underscore the political complexity of meeting the climate challenge.”