Ireland risks missing its 70% renewables by 2030 goal due to lack of assets, research by Cornwall Insight Ireland has revealed.
The Irish Government recently announced a commitment to having 70% of all electricity generated coming from renewable sources by 2030.
Cornwall Insight Ireland’s research shows that as things currently stand there is likely to be a shortfall of wind, solar and other renewable assets to be able to meet the new target.
The shortfall is predicted to stand at more than 20 terawatt hours (TWh), according to the analyst outfit, only part of which will be met by the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS).
Cornwall Insight Ireland senior consultant James Goldsmith said: “This target is undoubtedly an honourable ambition that will be welcomed by many who previously thought Ireland’s climate change goals were lacklustre relative to international peers.
“However, Cornwall Insight Ireland’s predictions show that there is, without any further action, likely to be a shortfall against the new ambition.”
The analyst group studied EirGrid’s latest Capacity Generation statement, which states Ireland currently has the capacity to produce between 8TWh and 9TWh from renewable sources annually – making up 30%, or 29TWh, of Ireland’s demand.
“EirGrid has also anticipated growth in demand of up to 40TWh by the end of the next decade. This leaves Ireland with a deficit of more than 20TWh that will need to be found to meet the 70% target,” said Goldsmith.
He said the the “high-level design” for the RESS gave the trajectory of the size of auctions in the years up to 2027, indicating that they will support an additional 12.5TWh of renewable generation.
“Even with these projections, there will still be a significant shortfall of 8TWh” added Goldsmith.
The consultant said this will create an opportunity in the burgeoning corporate purchase power agreements (CPPAs) market, but that “it may be hard for CPPAs to bridge the gap on their own.”
He said: “Regardless of how much will need to be bridged, one thing is for certain: Ireland will be building a lot of renewable energy in the next decade if it wants to achieve 70% by 2030. A powerful signal for developers and investors alike.”